The premise is that the best way to make good decisions is to avoid making bad ones. That is, the processes for making good decisions are generally straight forward, so the important factor in decision making is filtering out various biases and flaws in logic. Begins with a primer on common decision making techniques such as decision trees and expected value, but quickly turns to biases and flaws in reasoning. Particular emphasis is placed on the way people filter information based on biased experiences and the way advocates craft biased narratives. Also covered are various forms of bias (confirmation bias, selectivity bias, bias of interpretation, bias of affiliation, etc.), the human tendency to attribute reason to randomness, how ruling by exception can be persuasive and many others.
Relevant Audience: Practically everyone.
Decision Making
Copyright 2012 Keith White Analytics LLC, Las Vegas, Nevada USA